Reform UK has staked its claim as the real opposition in British politics after announcing a surge in membership following Christmas, surpassing the membership numbers of the Conservative Party. Party leader Nigel Farage hailed it as a “historic moment,” but critics, including Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, dispute the authenticity of the figures.
Reform UK’s membership allegedly crossed 131,680 on Boxing Day, surpassing the Tory membership figure declared during their November leadership election. Nigel Farage declared on X, “Reform UK are now the real opposition,” emphasizing the party’s growing influence.
Despite Farage’s claims, Kemi Badenoch accused Reform UK of fabricating the data. “The website has been coded to tick up automatically,” Badenoch stated on X, dismissing the counter as a ploy to manipulate supporters.
While still trailing the Conservatives in Scotland, a source within Reform UK revealed a 10% increase in Scottish membership, climbing to 5,844. Scottish Tories currently hold 6,941 members but face attrition.
A Westminster voting intention poll by Norstat for the Sunday Times showed Reform UK polling at 15% in Scotland, only 5% behind Labour and eclipsing the Tories. If this trend continues into the 2026 Holyrood election, analysis projects that Reform UK could secure 13 seats in the Scottish Parliament, further solidifying their presence.
Scottish Labour and Conservative spokespeople dismissed Reform UK’s ambitions, labeling them as “headline grabbers” rather than bearers of “serious plans” to address Scotland’s economic and social challenges. Reform UK, however, remains focused on their goal of becoming Scotland’s official opposition within the next 16 months.
Underpinning Reform UK’s momentum is voter dissatisfaction with traditional parties. “People are desperate for change,” said a Reform UK source. “We aim to be the messengers of hope.”
While Reform UK’s claim of being the second-largest party in the UK is met with skepticism, it reflects shifting political dynamics and voter appetite for alternatives. Whether this momentum will translate into seats and significant influence remains to be seen.